CNN data guru marvels at Trump flipping independent vote in key swing states: ‘Very good sign' for GOP nominee

CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten marveled over former President Trump’s current small lead with independent voters in crucial swing states, suggesting it’s evidence that Trump has good momentum that could win him the election in November.

Enten broke down the independent voter polling during "CNN News Central" on Wednesday, showing network anchor John Berman that Trump has been able to gain a small lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among the demographic in key swing states. Considering the Democratic Party won those voters by +5 in 2020, Enten noted it displayed significant momentum for Trump.

"That‘s the type of movement Donald Trump loves to see and it’s a type of movement that I think gives Democrats some agita," Enten stated.

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The data reporter began by noting how Trump has been chipping away at the Democratic Party’s lead with independents since Nov. 2020. As his aggregate numbers showed, Biden’s +11 points at the time he won in 2020 had been halved by September 2024, with Harris only having +5 among independents nationally. One month later, Harris’ lead was halved again to only +2.

"You look now though, look at this – she‘s only up by two points among a key block center of the electorate, down nine points where we‘re from where Biden was at the end of the 2020 campaign," he said.

He then looked at independent voters in key swing states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, among which Trump has a +1 over Harris – flipped from when Biden won those voters by +5 in 2020.

"Look at where we are today," Enten announced. "This is the type of movement Donald Trump likes to see in the center of the electorate ­– up by a point."

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Enten noted that the race among this demographic is still a toss-up as Trump’s lead is within the error margin, but clarified that the "trends" are the interesting point.

"Now, of course, that‘s well within any margin of error, right? But again, it‘s the movement. It‘s the trends, Mr. Berman, that we‘re looking at."

Enten then went on to explain how crucial the independent vote is for candidates looking to win the White House. "Usually the way independents go, so goes the nation," the reporter said as he flipped to a chart showing how many presidential elections were won when that candidate won the independent vote since 1952. 

Out of 18 elections since then, the candidate who had won independent voters won the election 15 times. In only three elections since 1952, did the candidate who lost the independent vote win the presidential race. 

"So it is possible to lose independents and win the election, but the bottom line is, that‘s only happened three times. It was Nixon in ‘68. It was Ford and ‘76 and it was Kerry in 2004," he said, adding, "Normally when you win independents, John, it‘s a very good sign for your chances to win the election."