Early votes top 84M in 2024 election

Early in-person and mail-in ballots poured in across the country in an election where former President Trump mounted a historic comeback to retake the White House.

As of Election Day, over 84 million ballots had been cast nationwide, as Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump was projected to win at least four of the seven battleground states, which were Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina. 

As of Wednesday morning, Trump won Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and he held a lead in the other three swing states.

States have long allowed at least some Americans to vote early, like members of the military and people with illnesses unable to get to the polls. Many states expanded eligibility in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

WHAT ARE ELECTION BETTING ODDS? EXPERT EXPLAINS WHY TRUMP IS CURRENT FAVORITE

In the 2020 presidential election, mail ballots tended to skew Democratic. In that race, 60% of Democrats reported voting by mail, compared to 32% of Republicans, according to a 2021 study from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab.

Here is a breakdown of where early ballots were cast, either by mail or in person, in the seven battleground states, according to The Associated Press. Some states, like Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, also provided a party breakdown of the early votes.

Arizona – 2,498,310
Arizona early votes by party affiliation:
Democrats: 797,098
Republicans: 1,015,409
Third-party voters: 685,803

Georgia – 4,031,303

Michigan – 3,319,560

Nevada – 1,098,284
Nevada early votes by party affiliation:
Democrats: 370,463
Republicans: 412,611
Third-party voters: 315,210

North Carolina – 4,481,606
North Carolina early votes by party affiliation
Democrats: 1,451,660
Republicans: 1,488,826
Unaffiliated voters: 1,508,842
Third-party voters: 32,278

Pennsylvania – 1,877,992
Pennsylvania early votes by party affiliation
Democrats: 1,037,783
Republicans: 618,205
Third-party voters: 222,004

Wisconsin – 1,540,288

Over the past two decades, the prevalence of early voting has skyrocketed. While early ballots demonstrate voter enthusiasm, they do not reliably determine which candidate is winning the race, because fewer voters are expected to cast early votes than in the previous presidential election. 

In 2020, the Fox News Voter Analysis found that 71% of voters cast their ballots before Election Day, with 30% voting early in-person and 41% voting by mail. This time, polls suggested that around four in 10 voters would show up before Nov. 5, according to Gallup polling. 

DOJ DEPLOYS DISTRICT ELECTIONS OFFICERS TO HANDLE 'THREATS AND INTIMIDATION'

Democrats and Republicans were far less divided on early voting this cycle, with Republicans even holding an advantage in some states. Four years ago, Democrats won the total early vote by 11 points. And unlike in 2020, Trump and the GOP did not discourage their voters from casting an early ballot.

While early vote data shows the party registration of some voters, it does not reveal how they voted. The vote data that some states released shows the party affiliation of voters who have requested or returned a ballot. However, that is not the same as their actual vote. For example, a voter may have registered as a Democrat decades ago, but chose to vote for Trump this year. Many voters are not registered to either party, making their vote even more of a mystery.