Follow the Money: Understanding FEMA's disaster budget in Hurricane Milton aftermath

It’s hard to understand the money when it comes to natural disasters.

Does FEMA have enough to respond? Will residents get money after their car, home, business, town are destroyed by floodwaters? Will Congress approve additional tranches of disaster relief – both in the near-term and down the road.

So, let’s follow the money.

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FEMA’s coffers for "immediate needs" and the Disaster Relief Program (DRF) were nearly bone dry as Congress approved an interim spending bill to keep the government from shutting down in late September. Lawmakers awarded FEMA more than $20 billion to reload the DRF, which dwindled to around $1 billion and change in September.

Congress restocked the DRF simply because it was prudent to do so. Lawmakers had to return to Washington in an emergency session in the late summer of 2005 to refurbish the DRF after Hurricane Katrina. Front-loading the DRF with $20 billion this year would be enough for FEMA to get through any natural disaster until Congress returned in mid-November.

That’s why FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell signaled things were fine with money for FEMA.

For now.

"I have the funding and sufficient resources to support the ongoing responses to Hurricane Helene, as well as Hurricane Milton," said Criswell. "We had thought that we would go into immediate needs funding in December or January. I need to assess that every day to see if I'm going to be able to wait that long."

This is why House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., resisted demands to recall Congress to address the storms. President Biden, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre have insisted that Congress come back ahead of schedule. The House and Senate are on recess until after the elections in mid-November.

Regardless of the severity of both storms, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Congress returns to replenish FEMA’s coffers. Yes. It’s good politics for the President, Mayorkas and lawmakers in the affected areas and others to implore Congressional leaders to summon the House and Senate back to Washington. It gives the illusion of exhausting all options. Plus, if Johnson or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., don’t call people back, those from the opposite party can suggest that they aren’t responsive or taking the damage as seriously as they should.

Moreover, it’s probably not even necessary for Congress to come back into session until November 12th. The DRF is now well stocked. Only something as catastrophic as thermonuclear war could draw down the DRF to zero before next month. So draining the fund that fast – prompting Congressional action – is not likely.

When lawmakers returned in a dramatic, emergency, witching-hour session in 2005 to replenish money for FEMA in the wake of Katrina, it did so with a skeleton crew. Only a few lawmakers showed up. Then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., approved the bill on the floor after a few quick remarks and "unanimous consent."

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There are three methods for the House and Senate to vote. A roll call vote where each Member is recorded as yea or nay. A "voice vote." That’s where those in favor yell "aye" and those opposed shout "nay." The louder side (supposedly) prevails. Then there is "unanimous consent." That’s where a bill comes to the floor and a Member simply asks to pass a bill (more often in the Senate). If all Members agree, the bill is passed. But if there is a single objection, everything stops. The bill is dead.

Approving an emergency storm relief bill with a handful of people may have worked right after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. But American politics now occupies a very different galaxy than the one 19 years ago.

In late March 2020, Congress attempted to approve a staggering $2.3 trillion relief package as the COVID-19 pandemic burned across the planet. Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution says that a "Majority" of the House and Senate "shall constitute a Quorum to do Business." But the House and Senate conduct business all the time without a proper quorum. It’s usually not a problem so long as no one presses the issue.

When the COVID bill hit the House floor, leaders insisted on social distancing. The aim was to approve the bill via unanimous consent or a voice vote. A formal roll call would require that all 435 House members come to the floor at once. Not an optimal scenario in the initial, dangerous days of the pandemic.

However, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., wanted to "make a point of order" that the House lacked a quorum and demand a roll call vote. Even former President Trump torched Massie, tweeting that the Kentucky Republican was "grandstanding" and should be evicted from the GOP.

Former Rep. Anthony Brown, D-Md., presided over the vote. He quickly counted Members present. Both the majority and minority devised a way to bring a large number of Members into the House chamber to represent a quorum. Some materialized, spread out on the floor. Others appeared on the balcony of the then-closed public viewing gallery.

For Brown, that was enough. The quorum was present. He gaveled the bill to passage without a roll call vote.

In today’s toxified atmosphere, it’s hard to believe that lawmakers from both sides wouldn’t protest if leaders try to summon the House and Senate back to Washington for an emergency vote, ala, Katrina. Even though it’s disaster aid, some will carp about the extra spending. They might accuse leaders of trying to ram through the measure without enough vetting. The 2020 coronavirus package vote hints at potential problems unless all lawmakers are recalled to debate and vote on emergency spending.

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Then there is the question of offsets.

Republicans representing the path of both storms certainly want the federal government to send disaster aid to stricken areas. But deficit hawks will demand offsets before authorizing new spending.

"We should definitely take take it from other places that the government just doesn't need to be spending money in," said Rep. Byron Donalds, R-Fla., on Fox. "There are areas that our government is spending money in that we should not be. It's really just political pet projects."

But what one Member views as a pet project is essential spending to another. Congress will gore someone’s ox if it takes this approach.

As we often say, it’s about the math.

"Tell me where you can get the votes to do it?" asked one senior House Republican source familiar with the spending process. "That isn’t going to happen. That never happens."

The federal government is already into Fiscal Year 2025 and there is no agreed-upon topline spending number. So that makes it harder to find offsets.

So the fate of disaster relief?

"This will just go on the credit card," said the source.

Here’s what to look for in the coming days:

There will be clamor for Congress to return to session. President Biden wants Congress to come back. Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution says the President "may, on extraordinary Occasions, convene both Houses, or either of them." However, both House and Senate are not in the proper parliamentary posture for a presidential recall. The House and Senate are not "adjourned." They are technically "in session," meeting at regular three-day intervals with only a Member or two present until after the election.

Also, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., intends to bring Criswell before his panel in mid-November for a hearing.

Finally, Congress will struggle with refurbishing funds to the National Flood Insurance Program and helping the Small Business Administration have enough money to assist storm victims. Mayorkas said that he has always known the flood program "to be in the red."

There’s a lot of money to follow in the coming months when it comes to the dual disasters. Was it too much? Too little? Did they spend it in the right places? Was it spent quickly? Too slowly? And inevitably, lawmakers will find something which went wrong.

The storms may have passed. But storm clouds on Capitol Hill about the federal response are just brewing.