If 2024 polling errors mirror those in 2020 election, Trump 'wins in a blowout,' CNN data guru says
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten stated that if polling errors for the 2024 presidential election match the errors in the 2020 election, Trump would win in a "blowout."
CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten said Tuesday that if the 2024 presidential election polls are as off as they were in 2020, former President Trump "wins in a blowout."
Enten broke down current swing state polling numbers between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, noting that they show a race "too close to call." However, he pointed out that polls have been off significantly in recent elections, and if that’s the case this time, Trump could win by a landslide.
"But let’s say we have a polling miss like we had in 2020," Enten told CNN anchor John Berman.
"What happens then? Well, then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake battleground states plus Nevada, plus the other states he was leading in — Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia," he said.
The reporter began by displaying the close race numbers between Trump and Harris in the seven battleground states. As his aggregate polls showed, Harris is up by one point in Nevada and Pennsylvania, and up by two in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump, on the other hand, is up by one in North Carolina and Georgia, and two points up in Arizona.
Enten reminded viewers that these point differences are within the polling margin of error according to FiveThirtyEight, so currently, it’s impossible to know who is winning.
He mentioned that on average since 1972 – provided that presidential candidates are polling within ten points of one another – swing state polls have an error rate of 3.4 points, so there is room for the actual race to swing in Harris’ or Trump’s favor when they’re within one or two points of each other.
He further noted that in 5% of cases, swing state polling can be off by 9.4 points, making things even less certain for people looking at the polls right now.
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"So, the bottom line is, the state polling averages tell us- what it tells us is it’s just a race that is too close to call. Maybe one candidate has an advantage over the other one. But the bottom line is, it is way too close to call and it will remain so," he said.
Still, Enten offered multiple hypothetical situations, the first one being what the election results would look like if the current swing state polling is 100% accurate. "If the polls are exactly right, Kamala Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 262 because she carries those Great Lake battleground states despite losing North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona."
He then followed up by showing what would happen if polling errors matched those found in the 2020 election. According to Vanderbilt University, polls overstated President Biden’s lead over Trump by 3.9 percentage in the two weeks prior to election day, calling it the "largest polling error since 1980 when support for Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter was overestimated by 6 percentage points."
Enten argued if today’s polls had the similar errors of the last cycle, Trump could walk away with 312 electoral college votes to Harris’ 226.
Conversely, Enten discussed what would happen if polling errors predicting a red wave in the 2022 midterm elections appeared on Nov. 5, 2024.
"What happens if we have a polling miss like 2022?" he asked. "Well, in that particular case, now, the winner has flipped again. And Kamala Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes because she retakes those Great Lake battleground states, carries North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona."
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