Montana Senate poll finds Democratic incumbent trailing GOP challenger, with control of Senate in balance

New polling shows Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate in the upcoming election, with the GOP challenger leading against a Democrat incumbent in Montana.

Republican challenger Tim Sheehy leads the incumbent Democrat, Sen. Jon Tester, in a 52% to 44% matchup, according to a New York Times/Sienna poll released Thursday. Democrats currently hold a 51-seat majority in the Senate, and Sen. Joe Manchin's, I-W.V., decision to retire virtually guarantees a seat flipping toward the GOP.

While there are competitive races elsewhere in the Senate, Republicans appear to be holding strong, according to Marist polling. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, is leading his race with 51% support, compared to the 46% of his challenger, Collin Allred.

Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., faces a closer race in Florida, where he holds a slim 50%-48% lead over challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.

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That story is reversed in Ohio, however, where Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown holds a 50%-48% lead over Republican challenger Bernie Moreno.

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The Cook Political Report also shifted the Wisconsin Senate race from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up" this week.

The handicapper cited changes in polling in recent days, with Republican challenger Eric Hovde appearing to close the gap with Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

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The latest Marquette Law School poll showed Baldwin winning the battle, 51% to Hovde's 45%. The survey interviewed 882 registered voters over Sept. 18-26. The poll's margin of error was +/-4.4 percentage points.

The most recent Fox News Power Rankings from last month had Wisconsin at "Leans Dem."

Fox News' Julia Johnson contributed to this report