Poll of Georgia, North Carolina likely voters finds Trump, Harris nearly tied

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the vital battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina, according to two new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

In Georgia, Trump edges Harris among likely voters, 48% to 47%, while in North Carolina the results are reversed, with Harris leading 48% to Trump’s 47%. The results are within the margin of error in both states.

Trump has won North Carolina twice, in 2016 by nearly four percentage points and in 2020 by just over one point. In the last 20 years, former President Barack Obama was the only Democrat to win North Carolina, and that was by less than half a point in 2008. The Tar Heel state has 16 electoral college votes. 

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Trump held a rally Wednesday afternoon in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, while Harris made her case in North Carolina's capital, Raleigh, underlining how important that state will be in deciding who the next president is. Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, is in North Carolina today for a "Gen Z Town Hall."

The CNN/SSRS North Carolina poll comes after a Fox News survey showed Trump ahead by 49%-47% among likely voters, while third-party candidates received 4%. The previous Fox News survey of North Carolina voters, released in September, also had Trump favored by just a touch among likely voters and Harris narrowly up among registered voters.

Meanwhile, a poll conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia last week found Trump at 47% support in the state, compared to Harris' 43%. The Peach state also has 16 electoral college votes. 

President Biden narrowly edged Trump in Georgia in 2020 to become the first Democrat to carry the state in a White House race in nearly 30 years, since former President Bill Clinton in 1992.

The CNN/SSRS polls released Thursday found that an overwhelming 95% of likely voters in each state now say they’ve made up their minds about their vote, with more than half of the likely electorate in both Georgia (59%) and North Carolina (52%) saying they have already cast their ballots. 

FOX NEWS POLL: TRUMP STILL NARROWLY AHEAD OF HARRIS IN NORTH CAROLINA

Harris has a seven-point margin in Georgia among those who have already voted, and she is six points clear in North Carolina, according to the CNN/SSRS polls. 

Roughly two-thirds of Harris backers in both states say they are mostly voting to support Harris, rather than to oppose Trump.

Higher majorities of Trump voters in both states – 81% in Georgia and 75% in North Carolina – say their vote is primarily about support for the former president, rather than opposition to Harris. 

In North Carolina, Trump leads by seven points among men and Harris is ahead by nine points among women. In Georgia, men favor Trump by the same margin, but women are closer to evenly split (49% favor Harris, 47% Trump).

Harris leads among Black likely voters in both states too by significant margins, 84% to 13% in Georgia and 78% to 19% in North Carolina. The vice president also leads among voters with college degrees, 55% to 39% in Georgia and by 53% to 42% in North Carolina, the CNN/SSRS polls found.

White college graduates split about evenly in both states with 50% for Harris compared to 47% for Trump in North Carolina, and 48% to Trump in Georgia compared to Harris’ 46%. Trump holds a commanding lead, 81% to 15%, among White voters without college degrees in Georgia. He leads that group by a less overwhelming margin, 65% to 31%, in North Carolina.

The White House’s response to Hurricane Helene trends poorly with 42% of likely voters in Georgia approving its response, but just 36% of respondents in North Carolina say they approve of the way the Biden administration has handled the disaster. 

In the race for North Carolina governor, Democrat Josh Stein holds a sizeable lead over Republican Mark Robinson, 53% to 37%, among likely voters. 

The polls were conducted online and by telephone from Oct. 23 through Oct. 28 with 732 voters polled in Georgia and 750 in North Carolina. The margin of error is 4.7% in both states among likely voters. 

Fox News’ Dana Blanton and Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.