Reporter's Notebook: With no government shutdown, it feels like Christmas in September

Triangles of orange and yellow candy corn are now spread around the house. Reese’s Cups have now morphed into chocolate and peanut butter pumpkins from their original, fluted wafer form. The dog regularly freaks out when you take it for a walk and some mechanical ghoul begins cackling in an evil laugh when you 'round a corner in your neighborhood.

The calendar flipped seamlessly from September to October. It's especially seamless in Congress. And while September is "government shutdown season" on Capitol Hill, Congress escaped unscathed this year. Bipartisan lawmakers approved a stopgap spending measure that keeps the lights on through Dec. 20. That’s why those who toil on Capitol Hill – or for the federal government – can enjoy the "Halloween" season this October. They don’t have to focus on "Continuing Resolutions" to keep the government afloat. They can instead embrace apparitions rather than appropriations. 

September’s salvation also rescued Thanksgiving next month. It’s customary for Congress to approve a stopgap spending bill or two each fall. Depending on the congressional schedule – and if it’s an election year – one might run the government through mid-October or later. Another may punt until just before Thanksgiving or just afterward. 

But this year’s emergency spending plan is special. It funds the government for autumn. All of October. All of November. It expires just before Christmas. So does everyone on Capitol Hill get to celebrate Christmas? Don’t bank on it. 

You got Halloween and Thanksgiving. Two out of three ain’t bad.

"Why have we picked Dec. 20th?" asked Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., during a meeting of the House Rules Committee prepping the temporary spending package. "Because it's the same reason we always have [with] Dec. 20th. Everybody up here is human. There are no AIs or robots in Congress. And when you get to Dec. 20th, you're five days from Christmas. You're four days from Christmas Eve. And you desperately want to be there with your family. This is when the leadership here has the maximum influence."

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Massie argues that bipartisan congressional leaders choose such a date so they can maximize their leverage over members. The proximity to the holiday helps leaders wrangle the votes to pass another spending plan – anything – to avoid a holiday government shutdown.

Massie said he’s been in meetings where a speaker of the House basically threatened Republicans that they’d better vote "yes" on a spending measure.

"[He] walks in and says, ‘If you vote for this, you can go home and unwrap presents with your kids. And if you don't vote for this, you're going to spend Christmas here with Nancy Pelosi.’ And then the chants start, ‘Vote! Vote! Vote! Vote!’ literally, people get enthusiastic to vote for something that they haven't read," said Massie.

The soupcon of jet fumes will permeate the Capitol in mid-December as lawmakers try to fund the government and avoid a shutdown over Christmas. The question is, how long a spending plan might run? Deep into calendar year 2025? Maybe until February? Perhaps late March as some conservatives advocated? Or will lawmakers actually reach an agreement on the 12 annual spending bills or even knock a few out, one by one?

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is ruling out an "omnibus." He’s also spoken out about doing "minibuses." That’s where they glom several spending measures together. It’s not an "omnibus." It’s smaller, hence the Volkswagen comparison. 

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However, the length of another interim spending plan likely hinges on which party controls the House and Senate next year, as well as who won the White House. The wishes of the president-elect will prompt lawmakers to bend the spending bill in his or her direction. 

But in September, the goal was to avert a shutdown and hash out the hard stuff later.

"We’re out of time. We cannot afford a shutdown," said House Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole, R-Okla., last month. "This path ensures Americans aren't needlessly punished with a costly shutdown and allows, importantly, the next president to have a say in the appropriations process."

Even though the Democrat-controlled Senate advanced zero spending bills on the floor this year, the Republican-operated House did a little better, approving five appropriations measures. But Cole partly blamed his own GOP colleagues for the legislative stumbles.

"We're the majority. The majority ought to be governing," said Cole. 

He added that it was "disappointing" that the House GOP majority had to again rely on Democrats to avert a shutdown.

That’s why Cole and others hope the House is able to knock out a few if not the remainder of outstanding spending bills after the election. Otherwise, a harrowing holiday season awaits.

Like Massie, Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, warned against "a crazy, massive omnibus train, which is the inevitability of doing something right before Christmas."

So how is Johnson going to manage this? Especially with the distinct possibility of Congress having to boost FEMA with an "immediate needs" bill nearly as soon as lawmakers return in mid-November? Then there’s the question of a shutdown in December. And that’s to say nothing of approving some plan to address Hurricanes Helene and Milton along with other natural disasters.

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By the way, if it’s clear that Democrats lost the Senate, failed to capture the House and lost the presidency, there’s a good chance they’ll balk at assisting Republicans with any spending bills. That could well launch the potential second term of former President Donald Trump under a government shutdown. 

There are headaches galore for Mike Johnson as he attempts to fund the government, address multiple crises, satisfy irate conservatives who are already grumbling about his leadership, and possibly cling to power. Calling the wrong play could jeopardize Johnson’s status in the speaker election on Jan. 3, if Republicans maintain the majority.

But what is the right play call for Johnson? No one knows. Johnson tried to appease the right with a spending plan that included a provision to require proof of citizenship to vote last month. However, Republicans couldn’t even pass their own bill. In other words, kowtowing to the margins doesn’t automatically guarantee success in the House Republican Conference.

But regardless, there was little drama passing the interim spending bill to avoid a government shutdown in late September.

That opened the door for the denizens of Capitol Hill to enjoy the end of the rest of the month. Embrace Halloween in October. Even Thanksgiving.

But Christmas? You’ve got to be kidding me.

Christmas may be a struggle.

Face it. Christmas came early this year. In September. There was no government shutdown.

Which is why actual Christmas could be a nightmare this year.