Senate shake-up: How a secret ballot could undermine a potential Trump endorsement in race to the top

Former President Donald Trump's historically influential endorsement could prove unconvincing in the Republican Senate leader race — if he chooses to offer one at all. 

Senate Republicans, including those who will be newly elected, will gather in Washington, D.C., shortly after the election in mid-November to hold a secret ballot to determine the next GOP leader. 

The next leader will succeed Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who is the longest-serving party leader in Senate history. 

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Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-S.D., and Sens. John Cornyn, R-Texas, and Rick Scott, R-Fla., have announced campaigns for the role. Each of the men endorsed Trump during the Republican primary, despite Thune having first backed fellow Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. 

Thune has had a particularly strained past with Trump over the last several years but has been communicating with him in recent months and seemingly repairing their relationship as he looks to lead the conference. 

Trump has often wielded his seal of approval, or disapproval, as a weapon. In the past, the former president has quickly doomed primary and general campaigns for elected office and leadership bids with as much as a Truth Social post. 

He's also held grudges against politicians who endorsed opponents, such as Rep. Bob Good, R-Va. Good endorsed Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., in the GOP presidential primary in 2024 before ultimately backing Trump. The former president then endorsed Good's primary opponent, who went on to beat him in a tight election. 

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Trump's ability to influence Republicans to get behind his chosen candidates has often relied on fear of retribution, a former Republican leadership aide explained. 

But when Republicans in the upper chamber cast their ballots for a new leader, they'll be doing it secretly. "Nobody knows how any particular senator voted," the former aide said. "So they're free to say whatever they want in terms of who they voted for."

"I don't think it has anywhere near the impact that it would in a public race."

The aide pointed to the speaker election in the House of Representatives, in which Trump's support or lack thereof played a significant role. In the lower chamber, the vote is public on the House floor, and how each representative voted is recorded. 

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Trump also runs the risk of irritating Republicans in the Senate, who "would not appreciate being told who to support from anyone outside the chamber," said Republican strategist Ron Bonjean, a former top spokesperson to former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and former chief of staff of the Senate Republican Conference. 

Any such endorsement could also prove moot if Trump doesn't win the presidential election, which will be held roughly a week prior to the leadership vote. 

"We may not know the outcome of the November election for who controls the White House until after the race is over," Bonjean pointed out. 

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Only two GOP senators have publicly endorsed a leader candidate, with Sens. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., and Mike Rounds, R-S.D., both backing Thune early on. 

Mullin is a close ally of the former president and speaks with him frequently. When Trump has asked for Mullin's opinion about the leadership race and whether he should get involved, the Oklahoma senator has ultimately deferred to the former president's judgment, but reccommended that he not make an endorsement, as there may not be any benefit for him. 

For Trump, choosing to weigh in could introduce "the non-trivial risk that he endorses somebody, and they don't win," the former aide said. 

This would amount to an "out-of-the-gate rebuke from Senate Republicans." 

If such an "immediate rebuke" were to take place, Trump would not have either the luxury or the capability to exact any kind of retribution, due to the vote's secret nature, they added. 

"This is a true vote of conscience. And votes of conscience like that are not super-amenable to endorsement pressure."

Trump's campaign did not provide comment to Fox News Digital in time for publication when asked whether he would get involved.