Trends are good in the swing county GOP chair calls ‘Little Pennsylvania’: It’ll ‘be a repeat of ‘16’

The Republican chairman of a Pennsylvania county that has voted for the ultimate presidential victor in the past four cycles says it is both the enthusiasm of the electorate and the makeup of the area that proves why it is key for both candidates this year.

"In 2016, Erie voted for Trump and in 2020, Erie voted for Biden. And obviously, Pennsylvania went the same direction in ‘16 and ‘20, and the nation did too," Erie County Republican Party Chair Tom Eddy said in a Thursday interview.

"I look at Erie as being just kind of like this small ‘Little Pennsylvania’," he said.

"Pennsylvania is a pretty big state and if you look down in the southeastern and the southwest corners, they are pretty industrialized: Pittsburgh; Philadelphia. And then, if you go to the middle of the state: pretty agricultural. And if you look at that Erie, it's this little stamp up in this northwest corner."

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Eddy noted Erie’s southern half is predominantly agricultural and leans heavily Republican, while the city of Erie in the north, including Pennsylvania’s only beachfront, is heavily Democratic, with purple suburbs in between.

"The city has some major industry. It's pretty big in plastic industries and tool-and-die, but it also has a pretty large immigrant population: very ethnic, diverse, racially diverse. I mean, everything you see around the entire state is here in this little corner."

Eddy said he tells candidates who visit his area that if their message can resonate there, it will resonate statewide largely for that reason.

"Erie is unique … in the fact it is able to pick the winners."

Other than choosing former Secretary of State John Kerry, former Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis and former Vice President Al Gore, the county has voted for the eventual president in races going back to the 1960s.

Eddy said the county went for former President Donald Trump in 2016 despite a 10,000-vote registration advantage for Democrats. Therefore, it is the independent voters who often make the difference for GOP candidates.

In that regard, Eddy said yard signs for other topline candidates, like state Sen. Dan Laughlin, R-Erie, have been flying out the door of his office, a few blocks outside the city proper.

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Laughlin’s seat is one of at least three that Democrats hope to flip this November, according to the Pennsylvania Independent.

Democrats are hoping for such a turn of events, which would give the party its first full operational control of state government in decades, according to state Sen. Sharif Street, D-Philadelphia, the state party chair. Lt. Gov. Austin Davis would be the tie-breaking vote in a 25-25 Senate, and winning four seats would give Democrats full control of the upper chamber.

In a recent interview, Street said Pennsylvania Democrats have seen 40,000 volunteers sign up since Vice President Kamala Harris became the party’s nominee.

"The vice president has sort of set the world on fire," he said.

However, Eddy remained confident Erie would help return Trump to the White House and maintain at least a divided state government -- with Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro not up for re-election, and a current four-seat GOP Senate majority and a one-seat Democratic House majority.

"Every week, Dan [Laughlin] brings in yard signs, and within two days they’re gone," he said.

The same holds true for Trump-Vance and other races, he added.

He also credited his group of independent volunteers, including a local named Pat who has reportedly knocked on 2,500 doors in the county.

Eddy added that another strategy he and other Republicans are embracing this fall is mail-in and early voting.

On his regular visits to the courthouse to obtain more registration applications and the like, Eddy said he has seen lines of people waiting to vote early, something new to him and many others in the area.

When he would hand out such forms at GOP rallies during the 2020 cycle, many attendees did not want them because the practice was criticized on the right, Eddy said, adding that now, the party and Trump embrace early voting, and people are listening to the nominee’s advice.

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Along with getting people to vote early, targeting low-propensity voters has been important in Erie. These voters, who are not likely to go to the polls for one reason or another, are the prime electors to utilize an absentee or early ballot.

"You have this right that has been given to us from people generations before who did a lot of sacrificing to ensure that we have this right to control our government and not the other way around," Eddy said. 

"If we don't take advantage of that, we're going to wind up like a lot of other third-world countries … So we've got this unique right to be able to pick the people to represent us. You should go out and vote for that person. It may not always be who I like. But as long as it's who you want. That's the important thing."

Fox News Digital reached out to Laughlin, the Erie County Democratic Party as well as local Democrats, including the campaign of state Rep. Ryan Bizzarro, who represents Erie. 

In comments to NPR, Erie County Democratic Chairman Sam Talarico said enthusiasm on his side has been "crazy" as well.

"[W]e had 60 people on our volunteer list the day before [Biden] dropped out. And right now, we have 310 people on our volunteer list," he told the outlet.

Talarico added that it appears to be younger voters who are more energized now that Harris is the nominee.