Trump narrows Harris' small lead in battleground Michigan, Wisconsin, poll finds

Former President Trump has narrowed Vice President Kamala Harris’ small lead in the battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin, new polling by the New York Times/Siena College finds. 

Among likely voters in Michigan, Harris received 48% support, while Trump garnered 47%, locking the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in an essential tie well within the poll’s margin of error. Harris polled at 49% among likely voters in Wisconsin, while Trump received 47% support in the same state where polls usually overestimate backing for Democrats, according to the Times. 

The Times pointed to the economy, which remains the most important issue for voters, as Trump’s strength on economic issues helps him edge away at Harris’ slim lead in the two northern battlegrounds. 

The new poll contrasts with August’s New York Times/Siena College survey, which has Harris leading Trump by four percentage points, 50% to 46% among likely voters, in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania as well. That poll was the first conducted as the race reshaped with Harris becoming the presidential nominee following President Biden’s July departure from the contest.  

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Now with less than 40 days until the Nov. 5 election, New York Times/Siena College polling places Harris ahead of Trump by nine percentage points in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, whose sole electoral vote could be critical in the Electoral College. The Times says Harris could receive exactly 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House if she picks up that district – given the vice president also wins Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Trump is victorious in the Sun Belt battleground states. 

Though Ohio does not fall into the battleground state category for the presidential race, it’s home to one of the nation’s most competitive Senate contests between Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown and GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. New York Times/Siena College polling has Trump six points ahead of Harris in Ohio, whereas Brown leads Moreno by four points.

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Democrats have enjoyed an advantage for months in presidential contest polling in Wisconsin, which has been determined by less than a percentage point in four of the last six elections, including the 2020 race, the Times notes. Meanwhile, Biden carried Michigan by three points in 2020, while Trump won that Wolverine State in 2016 by three-tenths of a point. 

Abortion was placed as the second most important issue among Michigan and Wisconsin voters. 

The new poll found 18% of voters in the two states listed abortion as their top issue, noting an uptick since May when 13% of voters in Michigan and Wisconsin marked it as their determining cause. On abortion, Harris leads Trump by 20 points in Michigan, but now only by 13 points in Wisconsin. Harris had a 22-point lead over Trump in August on the abortion issue in the Badger State.